Final Predicition

I unfortunately have to go on a business trip and will be off the blog on election night, so I will make my final prediction. Vote share 36% Con 29% LD 27% Lab. Seats Con 289 Lab 209 LD 117 SNP 12 PC 4 UKIP 1 IND 1 SF 3 SDLP 5 UUP 2 DUP 8. So what do you think?

Can we borrow him?

I have been able on the BBC website to watch the Paxman interviews with the three prty leaders. He is good, I mean beyond good. I have said earlier in the blog some things that I think Americans have over the Brits (and I haven't started on food or sports). But I love the way your media challenges people in public life. I have not seen an American politician truly undergo a tough interview in a great deal of time. We have journalists who are either too boring, or are too politically motivated to be trusted by either side. Paxman is unbiased, in my mind, but absolutely willing to hit the core. So......... in 2012 can we borrow him for a few months.

The Line that Clegg missed

Brown and Cameron both went hard after Clegg on immigration. They used terms such as "caps" and "controls", most importantly calling his policy "amnesty". If I was Clegg I would have said "This is not the language of a fair open Britain, this the languange of American reactionaries". First, because it is. All of the words are used in the American right-wing lexicon to describe the moderate efforts for immigration reform lead by two crazy lefties named Bush and McCain. Second, Clegg can use this to show that he is the change in politics. But he is actually at the heart of being British. Finally, it could provide hours upon hours of clips comparing lines by Cameron and Brown to those of Rush Limbaugh and Tom Tancredo.

Yeah.......about that.

So Gordon Brown today said something we in America are calling a "Coakley". Martha Coakley was the Democratic candidate in the special election (by-election) in Massachusetts to replace Ted Kennedy. There is no way that she should have lost this race, none at all. A Democrat in a state thats top natural resource is Democratic politicians. But she made dumb comment after dumb comment. She said that Curt Schilling "was some Yankee player". She was referencing the rival of the beloved Boston (Massachusetts) Red Sox. Of course Curt Schilling is a Yankee hero. For my British readers it would be going to Manchester and calling Sir Alec Ferguson "some Chelsea manager". What Coakley and Brown said was not important to the policy of the world. But what both showed was a complete disconnect with regular people and general incompetence that is always rejected by voters. I think Labour numbers are gonna fall.....hard.

Location! Location! Location!

Every politician says that they do not pay attention to polls. Every politician at some point lies. This is not just true in Britain, but it applies everywhere. That is where the similarities end in how we focus on polls. In Britain there is an obsession with the national poll. By the final weeks of an American campaign they are met with a yawn. We focus intensely on state polls. With the exception of Scotland and Wales, their seems to be no focus on regions. Now I understand our voting systems provide a great deal of the difference. Ours is entirely based off the results in states. But the British system is based off a smaller sub-set. Does anyone think the mood in Liverpool has much of a connection to the feeling in Brighton. So as an American I have to ask why isn't there more regional polling?

More than halfway done

It is such a shockingly short campaign to an American, our last presidential campaign lasted 18 months. Why could a country that fashions itself in the top 5 on Earth take only a month to make a decision on their leader. A country that seems to enjoy politics so much more than my own seems to dispatch with their process so quickly. I believe fixed elections would change this, people would know when the election is and be prepared from a much earlier stage to fight it. It is also so medieval that the leader can decide when he wants to face an election. But maybe if I truly was a part of your system the whole process would make sense, but I doubt it.

What Now?

Sorry I have not been blogging lately I have been feeling awful lately, I must have had some volcanic ash in my sinuses ;). Well the campaign had a huge shock with the Liberal Democrats making a big push in the poll. So what do each of the parties need to do to win. Conservatives need to focus on grabbing liberal votes. Push to make people look at Clegg like a normal politician. If he can get a 5 or 6 point lead over the LibDems, he can truly make the argument that he is the one who can oust Gordon Brown. Labour needs to trash Cameron, make him seem unbearable to the nation, if they can make him seem so bad, Labour can push themselves as the only party that can stop the CamMonster. LibDems need to find one more thing to keep excitement with his campaign. Cable and Clegg excitement will die soon, I believe a pledge not to support a government under Prime Minister Brown, could be more sure of the possibility of change. My suggestions all have the chance to fail miserably, but if you want power you must be daring.