Final Predicition

I unfortunately have to go on a business trip and will be off the blog on election night, so I will make my final prediction. Vote share 36% Con 29% LD 27% Lab. Seats Con 289 Lab 209 LD 117 SNP 12 PC 4 UKIP 1 IND 1 SF 3 SDLP 5 UUP 2 DUP 8. So what do you think?

Debating the Usefulness of Debates

The leaders are preparing deeply for the first TV debate. So I think an American should give a view of how the American debates operate. First all three debates are televised on every channel that will cover it. They pool into one video feed so no matter where you tune in you are watching the same thing. This enables three different debate formats. The first is usually a stand-up debate about domestic issues. The second is a sit-down about foreign and defense (defence) policy. The third is a town hall where the candidates are asked questions by 'real people' on a mish-mash of subjects. They are hyped by the media and can have defining moments. But for the most part they are incredibly dull and change the views of very few people. In the American system they are essential because the people of America go into the polling booth and choose between the two people on that stage. I personally believe in the British system with the short election span and the fact you vote for an individual MP and not the leader there only needs to be one debate. This first debate will be exciting and informing for the British people. The other two will be uninteresting and a waste of time.

P.S. I think Brown will do better than people think. Remember he is the only one who has had to answer tough questions weekly for nearly three years.

A Bold Prediction

Take a deep breath.

The Liberal Democrats will not form a majority government.

Ok, everybody, including the Liberal Democrats know that. The point is how have they been so successful with everybody knowing that. Is there a persistant hope that a hung parliament will exist and the Lib Dems will be able to push their agenda in a coalition? A hung parliament has only happened once and even then a coalition was not formed. Is there a distinct ideological basis for the party? It appears to me to be a moderate, pragmatic party, which despite respectable qualities is not solid basis you would expect of a party nowhere near government. Is there a fatal flaw of the two major parties? This may be closer to the answer, but the Democrats and Republicans have been just as, or even more, useless in America. The answer is the Liberal Democrast always seem to get one person or policy that keeps them relevant. In the last election it was the Iraq war. Before it was personalities like Paddy Ashdown or in the alliance days Roy Jenkins. This election it is Vince Cable. At the launch of their party's platform (manifesto) Vince was very prominent, much more than Darling and Osborne. This is because "he gets it" say the media and the people seem to believe it to with the Lib Dems gaining to 23% in some polls. It may be true that he gets it, but it appears the Liberal Democrats will do just fine on May 6. Except for actually being relevant in decision making.