Wednesday, April 14, 2010

A Bold Prediction

Take a deep breath.

The Liberal Democrats will not form a majority government.

Ok, everybody, including the Liberal Democrats know that. The point is how have they been so successful with everybody knowing that. Is there a persistant hope that a hung parliament will exist and the Lib Dems will be able to push their agenda in a coalition? A hung parliament has only happened once and even then a coalition was not formed. Is there a distinct ideological basis for the party? It appears to me to be a moderate, pragmatic party, which despite respectable qualities is not solid basis you would expect of a party nowhere near government. Is there a fatal flaw of the two major parties? This may be closer to the answer, but the Democrats and Republicans have been just as, or even more, useless in America. The answer is the Liberal Democrast always seem to get one person or policy that keeps them relevant. In the last election it was the Iraq war. Before it was personalities like Paddy Ashdown or in the alliance days Roy Jenkins. This election it is Vince Cable. At the launch of their party's platform (manifesto) Vince was very prominent, much more than Darling and Osborne. This is because "he gets it" say the media and the people seem to believe it to with the Lib Dems gaining to 23% in some polls. It may be true that he gets it, but it appears the Liberal Democrats will do just fine on May 6. Except for actually being relevant in decision making.

4 comments:

  1. Interesting article. I completely agree that the Lib Dems are "saved" each election by an issue, a personality or a set of circumstances. Last time it was Iraq and University tuition fees (which helped them in places like Cambridge). At least Vince will not be around for the 2014 election (I hope).

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  2. 50 years ago the Liberals polled 2.5%. It has been a long slog to reach 23%, but it is in the right direction. In spite of a voting system loaded against them they have 63 MPs now compared with the 6 they had at one time.
    Liberal Democrats are fair, moderate, reasonable people. What is wrong with that? It is a tragedy that for the last 65 years Britain has been governed by a succession of Labour and Conservative governments who have presided over the decline of the country.

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  3. Anon- I was coming from the aspect that usually a party would be squeezed off the stage. I was saying what a remarkable feat it is that they do have 63 MP's!

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  4. Anon - the Lib Dems are fair, moderate, reasonable people. So are most politicans. Cameron, CLarke ,Milliband, Johnson all are reasonable and moderate. Lets not be pious and think the LD's are superhuman and soooo nice. They are normal people.

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