Sunday, April 25, 2010
Location! Location! Location!
Every politician says that they do not pay attention to polls. Every politician at some point lies. This is not just true in Britain, but it applies everywhere. That is where the similarities end in how we focus on polls. In Britain there is an obsession with the national poll. By the final weeks of an American campaign they are met with a yawn. We focus intensely on state polls. With the exception of Scotland and Wales, their seems to be no focus on regions. Now I understand our voting systems provide a great deal of the difference. Ours is entirely based off the results in states. But the British system is based off a smaller sub-set. Does anyone think the mood in Liverpool has much of a connection to the feeling in Brighton. So as an American I have to ask why isn't there more regional polling?
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Easy- component countries of the UK have wildly varying electoral geographies within. Example (a ROUGH generalisation): North Wales is usually between Plaid and Tory;South Wales between Labour/Tory/Plaid/Libbie;Mid-Wales btwn Plaid/Tory/Labour. Northern England btwn Labour/Tory; Midlands btwn Labour/Tory; South West btwn Tory/Libs. You could end up with appx over 10 differing polls for England! Plus, there is a lot of confusion as to where makes up which part of England. For example: is the Witney constituency in the West, South East, or on the fringes of the Midlands? This is due, in-part, to the reorganisation/balls-up of local govt in the 1970's (now Wantage is in Oxfordshire, but then it was in Berkshire:and still is to a lot of the populace).
ReplyDeleteYou make a really good point. Given the way allegiances in high-populated areas can be in stark contrast between constituencies, I think polling at the constituency level would give a much better prediction of the outcome.
ReplyDeleteIt'd be very expensive however.
If voting reform ever goes through, and we we PR, then it won't be a problem; the outcome will follow the popular opinion (in theory).